US Dollar Index - Currency Options Trading Daily Chart 30th June 2009
Yesterday’s candle on the daily dollar index chart confirmed once again that the dollar is perched in a precarious position against many of the world’s major currencies ending the day marginally lower and closing, once again, below all three moving averages. Whilst the index has consolidated sideways throughout most of June in the 79 to 81 region the sentiment remains somewhat bearish for two reasons: first the three failed attempts to break through the 81 price point suggests that this is not a significant area of resistance, and secondly with the 9 day now crossing below the 14 day once again this adds to the bearish sentiment indicated by the 40 day moving average. The fundamental news on the economic calendar is all shoehorned into the next 3 days due to the national holiday on Friday for the 4th of July celebrations. As a result we now have Non Farm Payroll numbers on Thursday which is also coupled with an ECB rate decision in Europe whilst Wednesday has the equally significant ADP data and ISM manufacturing figures, with the CB consumer confidence survey out this afternoon. All this data may well combine to provide the markets with a catalyst for the medium term direction for the US Dollar which in turn will dictate the direction for currencies, commodities and equities. Should the index fall below key support at 78.50 then we may see a deeper move still possibly even as low as 71 last seen in mid 2008.
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